Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ Real Clear Politics ’

Obi-Wan: Anakin, Chancellor Palpatine is evil.

Anakin Skywalker: From my point of view, the Jedi are evil.

Obi-Wan: Well, then you are lost.

It’s popular to talk down polling, but from where I sit, the polling of the primaries has been pretty good. Yes, Iowa was terrible, but that was a caucus. The primary polling has been solid.

Florida’s polling has lined up in a nice, neat band for every candidate, making it easy to say Mitt Romney is going to win tomorrow.

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Republicans are voting today in South Carolina. And as we’ve seen since New Hampshire, the polling has been pretty consistent. The debates, the exits from the race, and all the momentum seem to have benefited one man: Newt Gingrich.

If Gingrich doesn’t come in first in South Carolina today, it will be a large upset.

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Fun with Real Clear Politics

By on November 17, 2011

Just for kicks, I’ve taken the Real Clear Politics chart of the Republican race and done two things with it. First, I eliminated all candidates but Rick Perry and Herman Cain. Second, I shifted Herman Cain back about 45 days, and up about 5 points.

Red is Cain. Blue is Perry. The shapes of the peaks look pretty similar to me.

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I promised last week that Newt Gingrich would get a slot in the next graphic, so here it is. When you finish in second or tied for second in the last two national polls, you’ve earned it.

For the first time in a while though, I can’t really say for sure who’s ahead. I don’t know that the Republicans have a frontrunner right now. Is Herman Cain leading, or Romney? How close is Gingrich? Has Rick Perry faded permanently below the Pauldoza line?

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A website called The Conservative Journal is releasing polls now, with an archive available on the website.

The polls are definitely making the rounds on the right, thanks to results that are relatively good for Republicans. But are they worth the pixels they’re printed on? It’s hard to say.

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Later today I will find out what my Senate projection says are the four closest Senate races are, but for now, here are what I think those four currently are, and the latest polling on each:

Illinois between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk, Nevada between Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry Reid, Washington between Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi, and West Virginia between Republican John Raese and Democrat Joe Manchin.

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October marches on, and so does the House generic ballot polling. Last week Republicans were on the rebound and this week every single generic is showing Republicans back on top, as has not been the case lately.

So let’s see what the damage is.

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Right after the primaries in New York, when Republicans finally found out that Joe DioGuardi would be going against Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, they got a big bounce in the polls.

Judging by the new Quinnipiac, that bounce had a finite lifespan, and that lifespan was not particularly long.

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It’s October. The baseball games start to count for more, and in the National League where men are men, and players play on the field, the games become riveting managerial duels. Yes, I know I just lost readers. My Dodgers are home now and I can say what I want.

The polling is also getting more exciting though, as even the Gallup Poll is moving to a Likely Voter model. Let’s see where we are versus last week’s 49 seat Republican gain.

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