Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ Real Clear Politics ’

Vitter looking safe

By on June 30, 2010

David Vitter appears to be safe. The latest Rasmussen poll of the Louisiana Senate Race has been sitting here for days on my computer, but I just hadn’t gotten around to posting it because it doesn’t appear to be a competitive race.

But let’s get it over with.

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I need to make more direct links to Real Clear Politics. I rely on them heavily for their poll aggregation. I just load up the Recent Polls page and I get post ideas all the time.

So here’s a direct link: RCP points out that in the latest Rasmussen poll of the Kentucky Senate Race, there really isn’t any change. The race is stable, with Randal Paul on top.

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Via Real Clear Politics we see that Magellan Strategies polled the Arizona Senate Primary.

It’s looking very good for John McCain, and JD Hayworth needs a lifeline, quickly.

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(It’d help if I get the state name right, wouldn’t it?)

Via Real Clear Politics we now turn to this Magellan Strategies poll of the New Mexico Governor’s race. New Mexico is a swingy state, capable of going with either party for Senate, Governor, or President, that swung sharply against Republicans in recent years.

But right now the race for Governor is nearly even.

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Pennsylvania update

By on May 12, 2010

We’re less than a week away from primary election day in Pennsylvania, so let’s take a look at the latest polling news from the House Special election to replace Jack Murtha, the Senate primary for Arlen Specter’s seat, and a surprisingly interesting House race.

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I found today’s polls to be dull, so I wanted to do something I found fun and maybe even interesting this morning. I wrote a simple, very crude simulator to project the Senate results based on the Real Clear Politics race categories. RCP rates races Safe, Likely, or Leaning for one party or the other unless it’s a Toss Up.

Here’s what I found.

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Rasmussen Reports has a new Nevada Senate poll out, and the results are looking terrible for Harry Reid. The Democrat is looking likely to be the second consecutive incumbent floor leader for his party to be voted out of office.

Conventional wisdom says incumbents below 50 are vulnerable. Well, two of the three Republicans running to replace him are now above 50, and the third is at 49.

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USC and the LA Times polled some of the major California statewide races. The results, provided by pollsters Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint, seem generally in line with what we’ve seen so far: Campbell and Fiorina are in a close primary race, lagged by DeVore. Boxer can’t reach 50. Whitman cruises in the primary.

The big news to my eye is that Jerry Brown has fallen behind.

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Rasmussen Reports has a new one on the Ohio Governor’s race. Kasich 46, Strickland 45, MoE 4.5. 54% chance Kasich is ahead according to my model, down from the 80s a couple of weeks ago.

This is more consistent with the previous trend and seems to confirm the RealClearPolitics theory that Quinnipiac has a few points of bias toward the Democrats in Ohio polling.

On Quinnipiac and Ohio

By on April 1, 2010

In looking at recent polling, I said I needed more data before I could write off Quinnipiac’s results as meaningless. Real Clear Politics has much more data to look at than I have, thanks to having been doing this for much longer, and they see a trend in Quinnipiac’s Ohio polling that leans toward the Democrats in every race in that state.

Food for thought, to be sure.