Unlikely Voter

One more day until the big primary election in Pennsylvania, and two big races to watch. Who replaces Jack Murtha? Who faces Pat Toomey in November?

Let’s dig in.

We’re less than a week away from primary election day in Pennsylvania, so let’s take a look at the latest polling news from the House Special election to replace Jack Murtha, the Senate primary for Arlen Specter’s seat, and a surprisingly interesting House race.

Thanks to Arlen Specter’s collapse, it’s now more than academic to see how Joe Sestak matches up against Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate rate. So, on to Rasmussen’s poll from the 6th.

Every single time we’ve been looking at the polls for the Pennsylvania Primary election, Arlen Specter was way ahead of Joe Sestak. Then he commented that he regretted leaving the Republican Party.

Uh oh.

Here are a few polls that came out from later Friday to today that I don’t think deserve a full work-up, but are worth mentioning at least.

Yesterday we looked at a poll from Public Policy Polling, but today we have a new poll from Quinnipiac University.

Amusingly enough, while we’ve seen Quinnipiac overcount Democrats in Ohio, their results for Specter and Sestak come in just under PPP’s findings.

Yesterday Public Policy Polling came out with fresh results for the Pennsylvania Senate race. Unfortunately they didn’t poll the primary race between incumbent Democrat Arlen Specter and challenger Joe Sestak, it turns out not to matter much just yet.

Pat Toomey, Republican challenger, leads both men at this point.

Today I use a poll of a primary race between two Democrats to illustrate my initial model of a horserace election poll. Until the general election season begins in earnest, the primaries are all we have and I intend to use them as a warmup.