Unlikely Voter

As we wait for final and eventually certified counts to trickle in for the House races, and even wait for winners in two Senate races, it’s too soon to start digging in and finding out what we can about the polling this year.

I am concerned about just how wrong the polling was universally in several states, though, and am trying to research a possible angle (heh) on that.

Let’s call this an open thread if anyone has questions I might be able to answer.

Today I will be computing this week’s updated House projection as usual, but the Senate projection is now scheduled for Tuesdays. I had to break up the workload.

UnlikelyVoter.com is moving to a new server. If you see this message, your ISP’s DNS service has pointed you to the new server!.

Is there a poll you’d like to see analyzed? Is there a race you want me to check for polling? How about an analysis nobody’s published?

Hit the contact form and I’ll be happy to try.

It’s here, and it’s only $0.99 in the App Store℠! It’s Swingometer for iPhone® and iPod Touch®! Now there’s an optimized interface for the small screen, when the web version just isn’t handy enough!

Am I excited? You bet!

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I just completed the submission process for the iPhone® and iPod Touch® Swingometer app. I suppose it should run on the iPad™ but not having one, that’s still a gray area for me. Hopefully the review process is kind and the app will be in the App Store℠ soon.

The Swingometer app will cost $0.99 in the US, and similar amounts in other countries.

Since my Swingometers are using terminology more often used in discussion of British elections, not American, it’s not surprising that some are unclear on just how they work.

Here’s an explanation.

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To join the House Swingometer I’ve now added the Electoral College Swingometer.

Obviously we need the 2010 Census to complete before we will know the actual makeup of the 2012 Electoral College, but for now I use the 2008 numbers.

It looks like the Contact page was broken for a while. I fixed it as soon as I noticed. Sadly that’s the one thing that could break without people being able to tell me about it!

I’ll probably regret posting this, but here is The Shirt™ I picked up of the Extended Bell Curve.

I’m sure Lord Pollington is horrified at such informal language being used on this site, but it’s accurate. Right now my efforts are focused on making the national projections possible, and pretty in fact.

Here’s a peek at the basic map I will use, based on those electoral maps published by the National Atlas. What election it was originally made for is obvious.

Contact me and I’ll give your race a look. Primary, general, Democrat, Republican, it doesn’t matter.

Unlikely Voter is still in a bit of a holding pattern until the 2010 general election begins in earnest, so I’d love to hear suggestions for what I should be looking at right now.

There are number of tools that go into the production of Unlikely Voter now and going forward. In the interests of allowing skeptical observers the ability to try to reproduce my work, I will share them with you. Not that I’m going to give away the store, but I’m ready to give strong and clear hints.

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