Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Archive for the ‘ UnlikelyVoter ’ Category

I don’t get to do much at Unlikely Voter these days, but this was easy. Meet the Create Your Own Voter Model tool, a.k.a. the Unskewer.

Try out your own party identification assumptions!

By request, I’ve updated the Swingometers to include a new feature: Reverse Swingometer! Instead of plugging in a swing in the two-party vote, and getting a result in seats or electoral votes, this new features lets you plug in that result, and get the necessary swing to make that happen!


Approving comments

By on May 27, 2012

I’ve just realized I’m way behind in approving comments. I’m fixing that now. My apologies to all who commented and never got approved. Except the spammers, naturally.

Apologies for going quiet

By on February 9, 2012

The big story this week has been the Rick Santorum sweep in the elections. What I should be doing right now is checking whether the polls actually caught it.

But I’m away from most of my tools. The iPad is great but it’s not what I want to use for synthesizing a half dozen different sources into one post.


Swingometer is my favorite tool for projecting elections these days, but when it comes to the Presidential election, we all like to run our own scenarios. Not wanting to give up that traffic to other sites, I was obligated to write my own Create your own Electoral College tool.


Swingometer feature added

By on September 4, 2011

I’ve added a new feature to the Swingometers: Click on a state/district and it gives more information. Simple enough, but maybe it’s handy.

Catching Up

By on July 29, 2011

Sorry I’m behind in my polling commentary. Had a busy two weeks here. Time to start catching up.

Once Swingometer was updated on the website, it was inevitable that the new version of Swingometer on iOS would come!

This new version has the same updates as the website (2010 House returns and 2010 Census), but also includes updates for the Retina display on iPhone 4, as well as support for the iPad’s larger screen.

Yes, iPad and iPhone are in the same purchase, so there’s no need to buy twice. I hate that myself, so I wouldn’t do that to you all. Buy today and support UnlikelyVoter.com.

Swingometers Updated

By on January 18, 2011

We all knew it was coming, and finally it’s here. The Swingometers have been updated. The House Swingometer includes the 2010 results as a new baseline, and the Electoral College Swingometer includes the 2010 Census-based reapportionment.


Ah, Statistics

By on January 8, 2011

I’m really having to pull out my old textbooks and refresh myself on how to evaluate some of the new numbers I’m coming up with, with respect to the errors in the 2010 polling.

Bear with me please as I continue to prepare my new analysis.

I know I went quiet here, and I apologize to any who were disappointed when my survey of the pollsters went dead. To be honest I think I burned out a bit in the runup to the election, and so subconsciously I gradually forced myself into a vacation.

So, an announcement: Some schedule of content will return in January. I promise.

Quiet Day

By on November 8, 2010

I know, I know. Where’s the free ice cream? I don’t have anything. It’s the offseason. Until the Presidential races start heating up (and they will faster than any of us would like them to) I’m only going to have so much to write about.

But I’m still cooking up my writeup on why some of the polling was so wrong. Promise.

Processing the results

By on November 4, 2010

In order to test my theory as to why certain polls were wrong and others were right, I need to be sure I actually know which polls were wrong and which were right. And doing that testing again will require me to wait for the counts to complete, unfortunately.

So, we wait. I am taking suggestions on statewide races across the country, though.