Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Archive for the ‘ UnlikelyVoter ’ Category

Backtesting Ahead

By on March 15, 2010

While playing around with primary polling lets me practice how I look at an individual poll, it does nothing for my work on aggregating polls and creating national projections.

So if I can get the historical election week polling data I expect to start doing some backtesting over the spring and early summer. I’ll come up with models and test them by “projecting” past House elections, Senate elections, and Presidential elections.

Whichever model works best I will use to project the 2010 midterms. Additionally I’ll learn which pollsters are better than others, which will only improve my projections.

Welcome!

By on March 15, 2010

Welcome to Unlikely Voter! A plain summary of what this site is about can be seen in the About page, but I’ll now share the human side of that.

[More]