Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Archive for September 7th, 2010

I’m definitely a latecomer to following the Delaware Senate primary between Republicans Mike Castle and Christine O’Donnell, but now that I’m aware of it, it’s striking to me just how differently the two candidates perform in the new Rasmussen poll featuring each candidate against Democrat Chris Coons.

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My plan had been to push out projections every Monday until election day but Labor Day brought out the laziness in me, so we do this week’s on Tuesday. Last time, my third projection showed the second straight gradual gain for Republicans. Let’s see if the trend continues.

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As I hinted yesterday, it is now time to update my House projection. My last comprehensive review gave Republicans 52 seats over 2008, but let’s see how far the Swingometer needles move this time, as even I have been surprised by how far some of these new Generic Ballots have shifted toward Republicans.

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