Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Hayworth, Brewer running weak in the General?

Daily Kos and Research 2000 looked back to Arizona. It’s a reasonably comprehensive poll, carpetbombing the general elections for Governor and Senate, as well as looking at the Republican primary for Senate.

Let’s unpack it.

In the Republican primary, JD Hayworth trails John McCain as we’ve seen in every other poll on that race so far. At 48-36 (MoE 4), there’s only a 6% chance according to this poll and my model that Hayworth leads. McCain can breathe perfectly easily at this point, though being below 50 of course is a traditional indicator that Hayworth does have his chances to come back.

In the general election, McCain also sits right there at the bridge between traditional safety and a close race. He leads Rodney Glassman in the general election matchup 48-35, just slightly better than he runs against Hayworth.

Hayworth, on the other hand, would seem to turn this reasonably safe Republican seat into a horserace, as he only leads Glassman 43-42 for the bare 54% lead probability. Either candidate could reasonably be ahead right now in that matchup. However that’s a poor showing for Hayworth when he has a sizable recognition gap over Glassman, with 58% having no opinion of Glassman vs 19% for Hayworth.

As for the Governor’s race. Democrat Terry Goddard leads all four Republicans: up 47-30 over John Munger, 48-34 over Buz Mills, 47-35 over Dean Martin, and 48-42 over Jan Brewer.

However on the flipside of the Glassman/Hayworth race, the Democrat Goddard so far has a name recognition advantage over most of the Republicans. Only 29% have no opinion of Goddard, but that number climbs to 53 for Mills, 55 for Martin, and 76 for Munger. Only Governor Brewer at 13 seems to have little room to grow with greater voter education.

The primary for Governor was not polled.

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