Unlikely Voter

It’s here, and it’s only $0.99 in the App Store℠! It’s Swingometer for iPhone® and iPod Touch®! Now there’s an optimized interface for the small screen, when the web version just isn’t handy enough!

Am I excited? You bet!

I just completed the submission process for the iPhone® and iPod Touch® Swingometer app. I suppose it should run on the iPad™ but not having one, that’s still a gray area for me. Hopefully the review process is kind and the app will be in the App Store℠ soon.

The Swingometer app will cost $0.99 in the US, and similar amounts in other countries.

So Greenberg Quinlan Rosner did another generic ballot for Democracy Corps, as Democrats try to find messages that will stem the Republican tide.

But how are things looking now, and what does the Swingometer say about it?

NPR had a poll done of what they call the 60 most competitive House seats held by Democrathttp://unlikelyvoter.com/wp-admin/options-media.phps, as well as the 10 most competitive held by Republicans. However the poll wasn’t done seat by seat, but rather in three groups: The top 30 of the Democrats, the bottom 30 of the Democrats, and the 10 Republicans.

Let’s see just how far each group is swinging compared with 2008, and try to guess what that means for the country.

Rasmussen has a new generic ballot out, and that means it’s time to see how the Swingometer projects the election to go based on that result.

Rasmussen Reports came out with its generic ballot today, too. Having already explained in depth how I did Gallup’s, I’ll analyze the consequences of Rasmussen’s numbers in brief.

The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Republicans have jumped to a 49-43 advantage, which National Review Online says is the largest Republican lead in 60 years.

Given the historical accuracy of the Gallup generic ballot in midterm elections, let’s plug this result in to the Swingometer.

Since my Swingometers are using terminology more often used in discussion of British elections, not American, it’s not surprising that some are unclear on just how they work.

Here’s an explanation.

The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Last time, it was even: 46-46. The two times before that it was at 45-45. Now it’s at R 46-D 45. Democrats have not led since March.

Gallup’s generic ballot is accurate in off year elections, so let’s see how that moves the Swingometer.

To join the House Swingometer I’ve now added the Electoral College Swingometer.

Obviously we need the 2010 Census to complete before we will know the actual makeup of the 2012 Electoral College, but for now I use the 2008 numbers.