Unlikely Voter

It’s technically Tuesday morning early as I write this, but I’m going to use the polls released on Monday, so this will be filed as this Monday’s projection update, as always built with generic ballot polls from Real Clear Politics.

Last week the Republicans fell off from historic gains to a result with a small majority. Let’s see if the trend continues on down or not.

Nate Silver at the New York Times suggested yesterday that generic ballot polling might underestimate how well the Democrats will do in November.

Henry Olson at NRO countered by describing how it might shade the other way.

I think it’s the best tool we’ve got, and partisan bias is somewhere in the middle. Here’s why.

It’s Monday, so it’s time to head over to Real Clear Politics and round up the most recent Generic Ballot polls to come up with a new projection of the House.

Last week’s said Republicans +58. Let’s see where we are now.

Another week, another look at where the generic ballot polls are taking us! Last week’s House update had the Republicans gaining 60 seats in the House of Representatives, truly a historic gain wiping out the last two elections’ worth of gains for the Democrats.

But with all the new polls out since, let’s see where we are now.

As I hinted yesterday, it is now time to update my House projection. My last comprehensive review gave Republicans 52 seats over 2008, but let’s see how far the Swingometer needles move this time, as even I have been surprised by how far some of these new Generic Ballots have shifted toward Republicans.

I didn’t know if Real Clear Politics would give me any new polls to discuss on Labor Day, but we actually have two interesting ones today: two new generic ballots to feed into the Swingometer, holding us over to my next big Generic Ballot roundup.

I’ve had my ups and downs with Gallup (one might say the relationship is like the plot of the Gallup generic ballot itself!), but since they’ve been solidly running registered voter surveys again, the numbers have looked reasonable.

But now they’re shocking us from the other direction by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey, showing a larger edge than even today’s Rasmussen’s GOP +6 (notwithstanding the alleged House Effect of the latter).

As if the big Swingometer update wasn’t enough, I’m not done projecting the House today. Taking a cue from Patrick Ishmael I’m going to simulate today the elections based not just the latest seat-by-seat Cook Political Report ratings, but also on those of Congressional Quarterly’s, the Swing State Project’s, and Larry Sabato’s.

Swingometer right now says R+52 from 2008. Ishmael right now also says R+52, though from right now and not from 2008. I expect these popular analysts still to be too cautious to project a big Republican win, but let’s find out.

The Florida primaries are today, but I’m not posting on them today. That way I have time to address – by popular demand* – all the new generic ballot polls, and see where the Swingometer is landing lately.

As always, I’m using the trusty Real Clear Politics archives to find the polls. So let’s go.

I theorized before that Pat Quinn would drag down Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois, with a rout for Governor having reverse coattails for Senate, and now Public Policy Polling seems to show the effects I predicted.

A bad candidate for governor in a negative wave year is a terrible situation for a party to have, but that’s the Democrats in Illinois today.

Some may recall when I questioned the recent Gallup generic ballot results with sharp language. I caught them passing off a poll of adults, with the shift toward the Democrats that usually entails, as a poll of registered voters. It got national media attention.

It’s clear to me the message was received, because now in the first release after my criticism, the poll has in just two weeks shown a remarkable 9 point swing toward the GOP.

Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude.

This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.

Speaking of the Swingometer, let’s see what it says about Rasmussen’s latest Generic Congressional Ballot released on the 11th.