Unlikely Voter

This is a new feature I’m going to start here at Unlikely Voter. When I see a few polls that aren’t really a whole post in themselves, I’ll throw a post out wrapping them all up into one post.

North Carolina was President Obama’s narrowest win in 2008. I’ve long thought that the state would be the quickest, easiest pickup for Republicans in 2012. As the final matchup between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney shapes up, early polling begins to confirm that guess.

SurveyUSA polled the North Carolina Senate race for WRAL, and the result is striking. In fact, it’s entirely unlike any other poll I’ve seen of the race between Republican Richard Burr and Democrat Elaine Marshall.

This poll makes Burr’s last big polling jump look small and timid.

Normally when I’m skeptical of a poll it’s because it’s from a firm I don’t trust or because I don’t think its methodology makes it predictive of the actual election.

But here we have Rasmussen Reports polling likely voters, and it’s by far the best poll I’ve seen for Republican Richard Burr in the North Carolina Senate race against Democrat Elaine Marshall.

Up and down, up and down, that’s the story of Richard Burr’s fight against challenger Elaine Marshall. I’m sure he’s much happier to lead than to trail but when he keeps hanging in the mid-40s, and Marshall keeps hanging around in the upper 30s, he’s in a position where he could be knocked off.

Civitas has a new poll out and the story still hasn’t changed.

PPP released its poll on the North Carolina Senate race that I’ve been waiting for since the twitter feed hinted the poll was coming.

Richard Burr leads, but it could be the race tilts slightly toward Elaine Marshall in the long run.

Wow. Just when I thought both Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports were both showing Richard Burr in good shape, Rasmussen shows his lead down to a single point.

What happened?

SurveyUSA polled North Carolina’s second House district for the Civitas Institute.

Presumably the idea here is to check on how Bob Etheridge, incumbent Democrat, is doing after an ambush video went a bit poorly for him.

I’ve been saying that the results in North Carolina would be a clear decider between the Rasmussen and PPP likely voter models. New polling has made the difference less dramatic, thanks to a Burr surge, but the difference is still there.

Public Policy Polling updates us on North Carolina and, well, it’s not looking any better for Republican Richard Burr than it did before in PPP’s survey.

In fact, it’s worse, wave year or no.

One race: North Carolina Senate general between Republican Richard Burr and prospective Democrats Cal Cunningham and Elaine Marshall. Two polls: Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports. Two markedly different results: Rasmussen shows Burr nearly 10 points higher than PPP does.

What’s going on?