Unlikely Voter

Gallup did a poll of religion in America, by state. I thought it would be interesting to chart that against Barack Obama’s 2012 vote share.

Here are the results.

Newt Gingrich had about six weeks at the top or tied, but that run is over. Gallup has shown a slow decline for the Speaker, and now Mitt Romney benefits. He takes his first national lead since early November.

Just in time for the actual delegate selection process to begin.

Newt Gingrich has now led eleven national straight polls, counting just the latest Gallup tracking, and now covering a span of four weeks. He’s been ahead a month. That’s already four times longer than Herman Cain ever led, and getting close to the span of Rick Perry’s lead, which lasted about five weeks.

But is there any sign of weakness?

Candidates for office aren’t always well known at first. This difference in name recognition can distort early polling, which is why in this Republican Presidential primary race I keep watching approval ratings for clues.

So my personal find today of Gallup’s Positive Intensity Score tracker I think is worth a look, especially as we consider whether Newt Gingrich’s lead is here to stay.

We went 10 days without a poll in the field, and then after that, we went another 5 days of no news. That’s nerve wracking when the last poll was so radically different from the past.

But fortunately the new Gallup is in, and it tracks very well with the Rasmussen poll. In fact if we pretend there’s no randomness, the poll lends itself perfectly to a new narrative.

Once Newt Gingrich finally gained some genuine attention after months of praise of his debate performances, the Republican presidential race became a mess. We didn’t know who was leading. It could have been Gingrich, Mitt Romney, or Herman Cain.

For now though it’s settled: Newt Gingrich leads. And as I’ve said in the past, watch his favorability ratings to know whether it’ll last.

R-E-B-O-U-N-D-I-N-G.

First came Cain, then came Politico, then came USA Today/Gallup and NBC News/Wall Street Journal with the latest numbers.

This also make three straight post-scandal polls that have shown Cain to have re-lost his lead over Romney.

With a new debate coming, now’s a great time to check the latest national polling. Of course, individual states matter, but this early the national polling is critical for gauging how well the candidates will be able to stay in the race.

To summarize, we’ve seen no changes since Herman Cain surged just ahead of Rick Perry. Mitt Romney still leads.

The new Gallup poll of the Republican contenders is out, this time with USA TODAY branding. Just looking at the frontrunners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in isolation, it looks like Romney is gaining. What I find interesting though is where that support appears to be coming from.

Romney’s support may be coming from Michele Bachmann.

Ten years ago, Gallup started polling the opinions Americans had of various industries. Two years later, the US Government was thrown into the mix. Monday, Gallup looked back to see how they’ve all done over the last decade.

It turns out the Federal Government is now less popular than any polled industry. Including Bankers, Lawyers, and Oil men.

I mentioned recently that broader polling pools favor Democrats, so when a big new poll of adults comes out from Gallup that shows Barack Obama to be in trouble, I take notice.

This week Gallup polled four Republican candidates against Barack Obama. For the three leading Republicans the results are typical, and do more to show the difference between polls of adults and polls of registered voters (Gallup polled both).

But oddly enough, Ron Paul was different.

This is it. Today’s is my final survey of the Generic Ballots. This is the last time this year I’ll ask Swingometer about the 2010 House elections.

Last week Republicans took their second straight week of a 57 seat projected gain. Will they hit 60? Will they fall below the 1994 benchmark instead?