Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Romney makes a breakthrough

By on December 31, 2011

Romney makes a breakthrough

Newt Gingrich had about six weeks at the top or tied, but that run is over. Gallup has shown a slow decline for the Speaker, and now Mitt Romney benefits. He takes his first national lead since early November.

Just in time for the actual delegate selection process to begin.

The facts: Tracking poll with a rolling average. 1,169 RVs. MoE 4.

Since Gallup started its tracking poll, Gingrich has slid from 37 to 23, but Romney now has hit a new high, 27, to take his four point lead. Rick Santorum is nowhere to be seen. What happens in Iowa, stays in Iowa.

Of course, after Iowa and New Hampshire, I think we all expect the race to consolidate. and Romney could be surpassed. It seems improbable, but it isn’t wrong to say Mitt Romney could become the first Republican non-incumbent to win Iowa and New Hampshire, but also be the first to win both states but not win the nomination.

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