I notice a trend: when people mock reasonable sample sizes (as though multiplying out 500 terms isn’t powerful enough math for anyone), it only seems to be when their preferred candidates are losing, and never the other way.
Posts Tagged ‘ Delaware ’
A brief note on sample sizes
By Neil Stevens on October 18, 2010
No movement yet in Delaware
By Neil Stevens on October 12, 2010
To my eye, the polling in the Delaware Senate race is shown no movement whatsoever, even in light of Republican Christine O’Donnell’s famous start to her television ad campaign. Democrat Chris Coons is still comfortably ahead of her.
There’s a chance that future ads and coming debates will change the race of course, but as of now I’m thinking that the fat lady is going to catch a flight to Delaware after doing her warmup in Ohio.
[More]A metric ton of new polling today
By Neil Stevens on October 6, 2010
Good evening. We have a great deal of new polling that’s flooded in. Much of it is interesting too, so rather than pick and choose which polls I’ll cover in depth and which I will omit, instead I’ll give a quick look at all the good ones.
We’ve got Senate races in Nevada, Connecticut, West Virginia, Ohio, New York, Missouri, and Delaware, plus races for Governor in Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Hawaii, and Florida. I told you it was a lot.
[More]The first post-primary poll in Delaware
By Neil Stevens on September 16, 2010
I normally like to let these races rest a week before I start looking into the polling, but thanks to one pollster sitting on a pre-primary poll to drop the bomb after the primary, I thought I’d hit today the actual first post-primary poll of the race between Democrat Chris Coons and Republican Christine O’Donnell.
[More]Preliminary update on Delaware
By Neil Stevens on September 14, 2010
With Christine O’Donnell’s victory tonight in the Republican Senate Primary, my last Senate projection’s hedge of a 50% Republican victory chance is obsolete. O’Donnell is the winner, and now I’m looking at how that number would look with the straight up matchup of her against Democrat Chris Coons.
[More]Kaboom, part one: O’Donnell over Castle
By Neil Stevens on September 13, 2010
I said twice before that Christine O’Donnell’s big challenge in the Delaware Republican primary for Senate was that she needed to give the voters a reason to vote for her over the popular Mike Castle. For the whole primary season, she’d failed at that.
Judging by the new PPP poll, she’s very recently had great success. She leads.
[More]Rasmussen: Castle greatly outperforms O’Donnell
By Neil Stevens on September 7, 2010
I’m definitely a latecomer to following the Delaware Senate primary between Republicans Mike Castle and Christine O’Donnell, but now that I’m aware of it, it’s striking to me just how differently the two candidates perform in the new Rasmussen poll featuring each candidate against Democrat Chris Coons.
[More]Extrapolating about the Delaware Senate primary
By Neil Stevens on September 1, 2010
All the talk in your typical Senate analysis this year has assumed Republican Mike Castle will beat Democrat Chris Coons in the Delaware Senate race, but the fact is there’s still a GOP primary in progress.
It’s forgivable to forget about that primary when polling of the primary is scarce, and PPP and Rasmussen hold Coons under 40, but let’s extrapolate from the PPP poll to the primary.
[More]Battleground Senate Poll
By Neil Stevens on August 11, 2010
In an open and credited aping of the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner House battleground polls, Public Opinion Strategies has conducted a massive Senate battleground poll.
Politico has for us the summary and 150 pages of gory, numerical details. I’m going to see what sense I can make of it.
[More]Obama and Biden to be succeeded by Republicans?
By Neil Stevens on April 30, 2010
Rasmussen released two new polls today. The Illinois and Delaware Senate races would seem to have little in common, but they do share a common element: they are being held for the seats vacated by Barack Obama and Joe Biden after their victory in November 2008.
Are voters inclined to send more Democrats to the Senate to work with them?
[More]