Unlikely Voter

Did Darrell Issa quit just in time? By counting the votes in California, we can see if there’s at least a blue wave in that state, even if nowhere else.

I said yesterday that there were three keys to the race. Let’s see how each one fared.

First, I said that both parties needed to keep from splitting the vote too much, or else they’d risk not advancing any candidates to November. It turns out the Democrats were split pretty evenly, with three candidates at 12, 16, and 17% as of this writing, with 83% of precincts in. However the Republicans were so concentrated that it didn’t matter. The top GOP candidates were at 26% and 9% as of this writing.

Second, it mattered whether this was a referendum on Issa, or on Trump. Republican Diane Harkey, the top vote getter, was endorsed by both GOP county parties in San Diego and Orange, Darrell Issa, and other local members of Congress. It does not appear that change from Issa was the motivating factor here.

Third, it mattered whether this was a wave election, with Democrats motivated (to beat Trump), and Republicans depressed (because of Trump). As of now, the answer appears to be yes. As of this writing, total Republican votes amount to 53,343. Democrats, led by Mike Levin, add up to 55,927.

Conclusion: Even if most of the country might not be seeing a wave, California is. Trump is toxic there, even with a number of Republicans. California small-government conservatism is incompatible with Trump’s big-government cronyism.

To be honest, they’re a bit concerned with the perceived white nationalism as well. When you grow up with people with names like Tran and Hernandez, as you do if you grow up in that part of California, Trump’s crowds looking out for White America just don’t sound right.

With Darrell Issa retiring in California, sixteen candidates are on the ballot today fighting to see who will be the top two to advance to November. Hollywood reality TV comes to San Diego county politics.

The 49th District is primarily in northern San Diego county, including the city of Oceanside, but it also straddles the county line, reaching into Orange County to the north. San Diego and Orange are of course the most Republican-friendly large counties in the state, with Orange County in particular being well known for a traditional small-government, Don’t-Tread-On-Me conservative libertarianism, aptly led by the Orange County Register editorial line.

The 49th district in particular also includes Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, one of the major Marine Corps bases, and the home of Marine Corps Recruit Depot San Diego, better known as the west coast boot camp. That adds to the unique flavor of the district, as anyone who wins there needs to be able to reach out to the Marine family population in the district.

All that said, Democrats see themselves as having a great opportunity to flip the 49th district. Donald Trump lost Orange County in 2016 as his big-government populist message tuned for the upper midwest flopped hard.

Of the candidates running, there are four Republicans and four Democrats seen as the most credible contenders to make it out of the June 5 jungle primary. Together, they have spent 15.3 million dollars, making it one of the most expensive House primaries ever. That’s how hungry the Democrats and Republicans are, because this seat is a core battleground for 2018 and could swing the majority.

Issa himself barely hung on in the Trump storm, winning versus Democrat Doug Applegate 50.3-49.7, about 1600 votes, in 2016. This may be a key reason he’s chosen to retire this year. This is a reason that open seats are more competitive: incumbents sometimes retire rather than fight hard for re-election. Before Trump he tended to win going away: 60-40 in 2014, 58-42 in 2012.

So these are the keys to the race:

• Can the Democrats and Republicans avoid splitting their votes so badly, that one party gets both of the top two seats? This is a jungle primary. The top two vote getters, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to November. Four major Democrats could easily split at 13% each, while four major Republicans plus four minor Republicans could do even worse.
• Is this a referendum on Donald Trump, or a referendum on Darrell Issa? Issa has opposed Trump on key policies, including the partial repeal of the State And Local Tax deduction, and Trump isn’t even on the ballot.
• Will this be a wave election, in which Democrat turnout is magnified, while Republican turnout is depressed?

The last point may be most important. If the votes for Democrats end up above the total votes for Republicans, then the Republicans are definitely at risk of losing the seat. But if this election reverts back to the old normal, without Trump on the ballot, then Republicans will have very little to worry about here in November.

By request I’m taking a look at a new poll of California Republicans by Probolsky Research. It shares problems I’m seeing in many early Presidential polls, but I am surprised at one finding that may be bad news for Mitt Romney.

By request, I’ve decided to take a look at just what kind of electorate the Public Policy Polling screening of Likely Voters seems to be predicting. To do this I will use recent PPP polls from two states: California, which went for Barack Obama heavily, and West Virginia, where Obama’s popularity has never been that hot.

As always I give the note that any analysis I do of the California Senate race carries an unusual risk of bias because I live here and I have a strong emotional attachment to the outcome.

That said, I’m beginning to notice a pattern in the polling between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina that suggests serious, late-breaking movement in favor of the Republican. I see it in the way the polls are moving with their methodologies.

I’m adding a fifth seat to my four close Senate battleground seats. I’d previously listed West Virginia, Washington, Illinois, and Nevada as the key battleground for the Senate as we approach election day, but it’s increasingly difficult for me to see a difference between Washington and California.

So, the race between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina joins the list.

The directions of the two Republican candidates here in California had been pretty much moving as expected for most of the campaign season. The abortion-friendly Republican Meg Whitman was leading Democrat Jerry Brown, while the abortion opponent Republican Carly Fiorina was falling further behind Democrat Barbara Boxer.

New polling though, such as the latest from Ipsos for Reuters, seems to contradict that.

As I’ve not been shy about saying, I have an emotional attachment to the California Senate race. I live here, I’ve always lived here, and in fact Democrat Barbara Boxer was first elected to the Senate when I was first beginning to follow politics, back when I was 14 years old.

So I knew the television ad campaigns would make or break the race for Republican Carly Fiorina, and sure enough, we’re now seeing a tightening trend in the polling.

This new poll of the California races by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint for USC and the LA Times has been discussed from one side of the Internet to the other, and back again.

But I wouldn’t be doing my job if I let it go without chiming in, now would I? Of course not. So let’s dig in.

We’ve already been seeing a slight move toward Democrat Barbara Boxer in the California Senate polling, down from Republican Carly Fiorina’s highs of taking a few leads.

But the new Field Poll release isn’t really new, and really only highlights again how Fiorina has a better chance to win than any California Republican Senate candidate since Pete Wilson.

Carly Fiorina trailed the Republican primary most of the way after Tom Campbell entered. But in the end she got the right endorsements and spent the money it took to get her message out and win.

She’s now going on the air against Democrat Barbara Boxer, a move I think is important because her deficit in SurveyUSA’s new poll is a bit larger than I think it needs to be for her to hang around and win in the end.

So it’s looking like PPP is the only pollster so bullish for Democrats in California, because we’re back to polling that has the race close with the new result from Fox News.

Democrat Barbara Boxer just had her best poll in nearly two months, as PPP’s newest is showing her eight points ahead of Republican Carly Fiorina in the California Senate race.

August and early September brought several polls with Fiorina ahead, so this new result is a striking change from that period.