Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

The air war is joined in California

Carly Fiorina trailed the Republican primary most of the way after Tom Campbell entered. But in the end she got the right endorsements and spent the money it took to get her message out and win.

She’s now going on the air against Democrat Barbara Boxer, a move I think is important because her deficit in SurveyUSA’s new poll is a bit larger than I think it needs to be for her to hang around and win in the end.

It’s been clear to me that SurveyUSA’s Likely Voter screening has been the model most favorable to Republicans this year. SurveyUSA has consistently been the go-to pollster for shocking results. So when SUSA has Boxer up 6, 49-43 (MoE 4), I take that as a bad sign for Fiorina.

It’s undoubtedly true that this isn’t at all a bad position for a California Republican to be in, and probably the closest that a pro-life Republican has gotten to the a California Senate seat since Roe v. Wade, but Carly Fiorina was not in this race as a sacrificial lamb. She didn’t spend what she did on the primary just to get close. So I think she’s starting to run television ads just when she needs to start her move.

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