Unlikely Voter

I theorized before that Pat Quinn would drag down Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois, with a rout for Governor having reverse coattails for Senate, and now Public Policy Polling seems to show the effects I predicted.

A bad candidate for governor in a negative wave year is a terrible situation for a party to have, but that’s the Democrats in Illinois today.

Carly Fiorina’s support continues in a band of 38-43 in the new Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race, while Barbara Boxer fails to reach 50.

Boxer strikes me as the Democrats’ counterpart to Richard Burr: She really ought to be doing better, but she’s letting her opponent hang around.

When I heard yesterday that Missouri passed an initiative attacking the PPACA in state, and declaring that Missouri’s citizens are exempt from portions of it, I thought it would be interesting to compare that Proposition C’s results with polling on the issue in state. So let’s check.

Opinion Dynamics did a generic ballot poll for Fox News, so we welcome Fox to the Swingometer today. Also polled is the President’s performance on the issues.

I see on the issue of “Race Relations” Barack Obama has +16 net approval at 50/34. I wonder if that will change after his statements on The View yesterday.

We have two new polls to look at on the Ohio Senate race, one from Quinnipiac University and the other from Public Policy Polling.

The results are very similar, so I think it’s pretty safe to say that for the moment, Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, though by a hair.

Wal-Mart decided to do its own generic ballot poll, so it’s no surprise that the cutesy demographic group that’s coming out of it is ‘Wal-Mart Moms.”

But if they’re real, they’re real, right? So who are they?

Yup, Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey are tied again, says Public Policy Polling.

The only way I saw Toomey keeping his previous lead was if the Job Offer controversy heated up and implicated Sestak in wrongdoing. It seems clear to me that the whole thing has blown over, and now the electorate has shifted back toward the tie I expect it to be from now to November.

Before we look at some of today’s primary races, here’s Rasmussen’s from a few days back on the Missouri Senate race.

John McCain barely won the state from Barack Obama, and apparently the Senate race is just as close.

Rasmussen has a new generic ballot out, and that means it’s time to see how the Swingometer projects the election to go based on that result.

By request, we take a look at a poll by Wilson Research Strategies via the Palm Beach Post covering Florida’s 22nd congressional district.

The University of Cincinnati is very proud of its Ohio Poll branding, and the new version is out. It’s an interesting blend of a poll in that it asks all adults some questions, then filters to likely voters and asks them other questions.

According to an internal poll of Mick Mulvaney’s discovered by National Journal, the South Carolina Republican has gained 11 points on 14 term Democrat John Spratt of the 5th district.

If the Chairman of the Budget Committee can’t use his seniority to keep his seat safe, then I would expect to see a wave nationwide.

In the North Carolina Senate race we already saw that Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling are showing markedly different figures.

It looks like we’re going to see the same contrast in the Colorado Senate race, as Rasmussen showed Republicans doing well while PPP shows Democrats ahead.