Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ 2012 ’

I’m happiest when all the polls in a race match up. It means we have a very good idea of how a race is going for the candidates in it.

So, naturally, I’m not happy about the Massachusetts Senate race right now. Seeing a 10 point swing from poll to poll, giving both candidates opposing 5 point leads, means we have to dig deeper to figure out what’s going on.

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I’m glad that we’re now starting to have a better idea of the shape of the Senate race, as we settle down on who the candidates are going to be, and how they’re polling against incumbents (or each other, in the case of open seats). Soon I will update my Senate projections with actual data.

In the meantime, we’ve got the first Missouri Senate poll in two months. Sarah Steelman polls an absolute majority over incumbent Claire McCaskill.

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I’m a proponent of applying mathematical principles to poll analysis because our intuition is often wrong. The human mind deals poorly with randomness.

However I don’t feel I need any math to conclude that Connie Mack IV runs better against Bill Nelson than do other Republicans in the Florida Senate race.

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Senate polling comes and goes lately, and primary polling is even harder to get. Pollsters seem to get more attention when they make these premature Presidential general election matchups.

But we got some Maine Senate polling from PPP just in time to get wind of some possible machinations in that race. Could Democrats be clearing the way for independent Angus King?

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Some opponents of Mitt Romney as Republican nominee have long insisted that once it’s a two-man race for the nomination, Romney will lose.

Saturday’s results suggest otherwise. Even on a good night for Rick Santorum, he only treaded water.

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Medal of Honor recipient, former Senator, and former Governor Bob Kerrey has announced he will run for Senate in Nebraska to replace Ben Nelson, the man who replaced him in the Senate. Common sense suggests a multiple-time statewide winner with a distinguished personal history would be a favorite to win the open seat.

New polling however suggests Kerrey is a large underdog to Republican Jon Bruning.

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While everyone focused on Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in Ohio, a major Senate matchup was finalized in the state. Treasurer Josh Mandel was chosen as the Republican challenger to Senator Sherrod Brown.

Brown took advantage of a crippled Ohio GOP and a second midterm wave to knock off a two term incumbent. But can he keep this battleground state seat?

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When three candidates hang into the Presidential nomination race after Super Tuesday, it becomes time to check whether anyone can get a majority.

Mitt Romney is close. So far he’s not there, but if current trends hold he will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States, and become so on the first ballot.

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The Republican party has held five primaries this cycle to date: New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, and Arizona. Mitt Romney won the statewide vote in four of them, including the last three.

Super Tuesday tomorrow will shake all that up, of course. But Ohio looks to be one state Romney may come back to win from Rick Santorum.

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Last I looked at these two Republican Presidential primaries, the first primaries since Florida and the first binding races since Nevada, I called it Mittmentum.

I was right about Arizona. Michigan though has remained complicated.

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