Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Swingometers Updated

By on January 18, 2011

Swingometers Updated

We all knew it was coming, and finally it’s here. The Swingometers have been updated. The House Swingometer includes the 2010 results as a new baseline, and the Electoral College Swingometer includes the 2010 Census-based reapportionment.

Of course, the House Swingometer does not include the 2012 redistricting, and I’m not sure it ever could. The only way I know of to construct a Swingometer that works across redistrictings is to reconstruct the districts precinct-by-precinct, and I don’t have the data to do that. In fact, I don’t know if I could get that data when the redistricting happens.

Suggestions welcome, of course!

Comments

2 Responses to “Swingometers Updated”

  1. re: Redistricting – the best that you could probably do is use Dave’s Redistricting App to use the new Census precinct data (when it’s finally released in Feb. & March), and use that to back-calculate Pres. ’08 (and ’04?) results. But, yeah, I suspect you’re right – there probably won’t be a way to reconstruct the ‘Swingometer’ with House election data after the redistricting…

    • Well an app doesn’t really help me. I need the raw data of:

      a) Which precincts are in which 2010 districts

      b) How the vote broke down in ALL precincts

      c) Which precincts are in which 2012 districts

      My guess is that this Dave guy might have a) and c), but b) just isn’t going to happen.

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