Unlikely Voter

The Badger Poll is out from the University of Wisconsin, and its results for the Senate race have me at a loss.

If we take this poll at face value, then Russ Feingold is in worse trouble than anyone imagined, even after the rise of Ron Johnson. But can we believe it?

For months the Cook Political Report has been releasing charts of competitive House races at a rate of about one per week. We’re 16 days into July, though, and the last one to come out was on June 24.

Why is that? Did everyone go on vacation, or is Cook having to re-run every race without Research 2000 polls? I’m not a subscriber, but judging by this Senate update which I’m told is disavowing R2k makes me think.

Just as Ohio and Missouri are the top two Republican Senate seats I would predict could flip, Pennsylvania is a top seat held by Democrats I could easily see fall the other way*.

So when Quinnipiac says Joe Sestak tied Pat Toomey again, I’m not surprised a second.

In the runup to the Nevada GOP primary, Mason-Dixon and the Las Vegas Review-Journal understated Sharron Angle’s support by 8 points, and cut her 14 point win almost in half to 8.

Now the pair releases their first post-primary poll. Are they gauging Angle’s support accurately this time?

Candidates matter, and while Dave Westlake polled way behind Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, it looks like Ron Johnson has a real shot against Russ Feingold.

In my estimation, the Republicans stand only a few competitive seats away from having a real shot at the Senate majority, so news like this is significant.

Of all the seats Republicans are defending this cycle, the one I think is most likely to flip is Ohio. Number two on that list is Missouri, so when I see results like Rasmussen’s on that race, I’m not surprised a bit.

Once again, it looks like endorsements are driving a primary. John Oxendine had taken to the air in Georgia and regained a decent lead (or as decent as you’ll get in a huge multi-way affair*), but now that Newt Gingrich endorsed Nathan Deal and Sarah Palin endorsed Karen Handel, the Ox is back in third.

It looks like the McCain/Hayworth primary in Arizona is basically over, as the Rocky Mountain Poll conducted by the Behavior Research Center a big lead and a big swing from earlier in the cycle.

Congressional Quarterly reports that Patriot Majority, an independent group which backs Democrats and raises money through ActBlue (“The online clearing house for Democratic action”), is circulating a poll they commissioned on the Nevada Senate race.

It has Harry Reid on top 44-40. Sadly though we have no other information on the poll, not even the margin of error, so it’s hard to say any thing about the poll but that I’d love to know the assumptions embedded in it, as were embedded in Joseph Cao’s poll making the rounds.

Certain critics either say or imply that Rasmussen Reports is skewed toward Republicans, just because this cycle he predicted early that the 2010 electorate would look nothing like that of 2008.

But that’s not the same as having a partisan bias, and in fact, comparing the latest Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race with SurveyUSA hints there is no such partisan bias to be found.

Plug -2.8 into the Swingometer and you’ll see 5 districts swing. Louisiana’s second district was the fifth closest seat won by a Republican in 2008, and that Republican was Joseph Cao. He beat William Jefferson, the now-convicted felon who received bribes and kept the cash hidden in his freezer.

By election day Jefferson had already been caught, and the money had already been found. Why was the election so close? Incumbency matters.

Back in May, I pondered the voter modeling implications of Pennsylvania Governor’s race, noting just how differently Quinnipiac showed the race from some other pollster.

It’s now July though, and Quinnipiac shows effectively no change from back then.

What seems to be the best poll this cycle for Harry Reid is out from Rasmussen Reports. No, people don’t like him anymore than they have this year, but the poll suggests people are beginning to dislike his opponent, Sharron Angle.