Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Archive for October 11th, 2010

October marches on, and so does the House generic ballot polling. Last week Republicans were on the rebound and this week every single generic is showing Republicans back on top, as has not been the case lately.

So let’s see what the damage is.

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Yes, yes, I can hear the groans from here already, but when I see two polls one day apart from each other that give diametrically opposite results in the Florida Governor’s race, I get worried.

Republican Rick Scott had similarly erratic polling in his primary race which finished close with 3% final difference, so as his polling against Democrat Alex Sink is swingy, I worry about the need for another divisive recount.

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Scheduling Note

By on October 11, 2010

Today I will be computing this week’s updated House projection as usual, but the Senate projection is now scheduled for Tuesdays. I had to break up the workload.