Along with West Virginia, Wisconsin I wanted to see more polling in. Rasmussen Reports has been the lone voice up there polling again and again, showing these key races competitive while the rest of the polling world passed on by.
PPP went there for Daily Kos finally, and now we get that critical second opinion on the races to see if they are as competitive as Rasmussen said.
The answer is easy: Yes, Republicans are not only competitive per DKos/PPP this year, but they’re actually ahead, just as Rasmussen said. This poll has Republican Ron Johnson ahead of Democrat Russ Feingold 52-41 (MoE 3.8), a shockingly strong showing.
The race for Governor is no better for the Democrats, as their nominee Tom Barrett trails Republican Scott Walker 41-50. Both Republicans win Independents just as strongly (Johnson does 51/40 and Walker does 49/37), along with about a sixth of Obama voters in both cases, making up the basic partisan advantage Democrats have in state.
What surprises me is that this is more than competitive for Republicans. In fact if Feingold and Barrett lose any more ground, this state could become uncompetitive the other way, with Republicans taking easy victories. I don’t expect that to happen, but then again I didn’t expect Johnson to be up 11 and Walker to be up 9, either.