Unlikely Voter

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I’m sensing great interest in recent Washington polling. The Elway Poll I’m going to ignore for now, as I’ve picked it apart in the past, and Real Clear Politics had a note on it as well, so I’ll look more closely at the new Rasmussen Reports poll, which shows Democrat Patty Murray retaking the lead from Republican Dino Rossi.

The change in the Washington polling is striking because Rossi had taken some slim leads, but now Murray has inched back ahead 51-46 (MoE 4), which is still close, but not as close as it had been, and obviously the other direction.

What happened? Rasmussen has included leaners for the first time. It’s clear that this is another race where one candidate has a good clump of weak support, and in this case that weak support lies with Patty Murray.

So I can’t conclude the race has really shifted since those tiny leads Rossi registered. This is still a close race (though per this poll I have it 75/25 in favor of Murray), and there isn’t some huge tide of support that Murray is suddenly tapping into.

This is just the first poll that’s registering the tepid swing vote she’s still barely holding onto at this point.