When the first major post-primary poll came out for the Washington Senate race, some questioned whether it was skewed toward Republican Dino Rossi over Democrat Patty Murray, or if it was simply an outlier.
But now we have confirmation that Rossi does appear to have a lead at this point, though perhaps not as large as SurveyUSA showed.
Not that Rossi and Washington Republicans are going to be disappointed with a 50-47 lead (MoE 4). Even if Murray shows a 36% chance of being ahead in this poll, as I calculate, a 64% chance to unseat the incumbent is something Dino Rossi should be pleased with at this point in time.
Seats like this I believe are the kind that turn a modestly good year for Republicans into a rout. Public Policy Polling’s Twitter feed suggested that this year could turn so bad for Democrats that Washington, Wisconsin, and California become the battleground. If that’s the case then a Republican Senate majority might not be probable yet, but it will at least be possible.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
When Patty Murray first ran in 1992, she ran as a “tennis shoes wearing Mom”, aka an outsider. Looks like WA voters are finally seeing her for the establishment creature she’s become (4th ranking Dem in the Senate, if I recall).