Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Toomey maintaining his lead

By on September 1, 2010

Toomey maintaining his lead

Yesterday we got a pair of polls on the Pennsylvania Senate race, both showing Republican Pat Toomey maintaining what is now a steady lead over Democrat Joe Sestak.

Ipsos for Reuters and Rasmussen show different particulars, but neither overall result is good for Pennsylvania Democrats.

I’d hinted in my last Senate projection that Toomey was flirting with a double figure lead and sure enough, Ipsos comes right out with Toomey 47, Sestak 37 (MoE 4.9) for a ten point lead among likely voters.

Once again though, Rasmussen Reports defies those who claim the firm has a House Effect against Democrats by coming out with a smaller lead for Toomey: 48-42 (MoE 4). Of course, Toomey’s support level is only one point apart, and Sestak’s shifts by five.

I suspect either one of the polls is a bit of an outlier with respect to Sestak’s level of support, and maybe both are shifted toward the extremes from each other a bit, and Toomey’s real lead is around 8.

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