Yesterday we got a pair of polls on the Pennsylvania Senate race, both showing Republican Pat Toomey maintaining what is now a steady lead over Democrat Joe Sestak.
I’d hinted in my last Senate projection that Toomey was flirting with a double figure lead and sure enough, Ipsos comes right out with Toomey 47, Sestak 37 (MoE 4.9) for a ten point lead among likely voters.
Once again though, Rasmussen Reports defies those who claim the firm has a House Effect against Democrats by coming out with a smaller lead for Toomey: 48-42 (MoE 4). Of course, Toomey’s support level is only one point apart, and Sestak’s shifts by five.
I suspect either one of the polls is a bit of an outlier with respect to Sestak’s level of support, and maybe both are shifted toward the extremes from each other a bit, and Toomey’s real lead is around 8.