Unlikely Voter

By request, I’ve updated the Swingometers to include a new feature: Reverse Swingometer! Instead of plugging in a swing in the two-party vote, and getting a result in seats or electoral votes, this new features lets you plug in that result, and get the necessary swing to make that happen!

Enjoy!

It’s early, so we’ve only had one House generic ballot in the last month that polled likely voters. Some would even say it’s too early to tell who the likely voters are, but as we learned last time, registered voter polls lean too far one way.

But, we peeked in on the early, naive Senate projection, so let’s do the same for the House.

I’ve added a new feature to the Swingometers: Click on a state/district and it gives more information. Simple enough, but maybe it’s handy.

While the 2012 House Swingometer may have problems due to redistricting making it impossible to do a perfect seat-for-seat swing, I’m going to try using it anyway to see what it says.

We have two generic ballot polls from last month. Let’s see what they might predict for the House in 2012.

Once Swingometer was updated on the website, it was inevitable that the new version of Swingometer on iOS would come!

This new version has the same updates as the website (2010 House returns and 2010 Census), but also includes updates for the Retina display on iPhone 4, as well as support for the iPad’s larger screen.

Yes, iPad and iPhone are in the same purchase, so there’s no need to buy twice. I hate that myself, so I wouldn’t do that to you all. Buy today and support UnlikelyVoter.com.

We all knew it was coming, and finally it’s here. The Swingometers have been updated. The House Swingometer includes the 2010 results as a new baseline, and the Electoral College Swingometer includes the 2010 Census-based reapportionment.

I have a few announcements this weekend after staying up late on Friday. The first is that I have a new chart: Here are the actual swings in the 2010 election from the 2008 election, district by district.

It’s a live generated SVG document, so your browser should let you zoom in as far as you want. Enjoy.

When I get confirmed numbers on reapportionment I will prepare an update of the Electoral College Swingometer with the new Electoral College.

It is likely I will also take the opportunity to update Swingometer on iOS to look nicer on higher resolution displays such as those on the iPhone 4 and the iPad.

This is it. Today’s is my final survey of the Generic Ballots. This is the last time this year I’ll ask Swingometer about the 2010 House elections.

Last week Republicans took their second straight week of a 57 seat projected gain. Will they hit 60? Will they fall below the 1994 benchmark instead?

Good evening. We’re getting so very close to the end here, I may start running these more than once a week to see where they go. It depends on the interest level I see in that.

Last week it was Bloomberg filling in for Newsweek as the odd poll out, but now the original thing is here: Newsweek is back. We’ll see how far down it drags the overall average Republican gain.

It’s crunch time. The lines are being drawn, the late, final strategies are forming, and voting is underway in many places (my own ballot is filled out and ready to mail). Last week all the polls fell into a fairly narrow band and gave Republicans historic gains.

So let’s see if that’s sustained, or if the Democrats are closing it up late.

October marches on, and so does the House generic ballot polling. Last week Republicans were on the rebound and this week every single generic is showing Republicans back on top, as has not been the case lately.

So let’s see what the damage is.

It’s October. The baseball games start to count for more, and in the National League where men are men, and players play on the field, the games become riveting managerial duels. Yes, I know I just lost readers. My Dodgers are home now and I can say what I want.

The polling is also getting more exciting though, as even the Gallup Poll is moving to a Likely Voter model. Let’s see where we are versus last week’s 49 seat Republican gain.