Unlikely Voter

I know the whole world has discussed this poll to death already, but I think it deserves mentioning. In fact I would have yesterday but Gallup got in the way.

But here it is: Rasmussen suddenly shows Republican John Raese competitive with Democrat Joe Manchin in the West Virginia Senate race.

Public Policy Polling jumped out ahead to poll the Alaska Senate race even as Republican Lisa Murkowski tries to drag out her primary defeat at the hands of Joe Miller. PPP also checked up on what might happen if Murkowski somehow were able to dislodge the Libertarian nominee and take that party’s line on the ballot in November.

As we approach election day I will be updating my Senate projection more frequently. So while I went two months before pushing out my last update, this time I’ve only gone slightly over two weeks.

Busy day today, but I couldn’t let go without comment this new poll by Missouri State University for KY3 of the Missouri Senate race.

Even if its findings weren’t entirely out of step with the rest of the polling world, the details of the poll carry a number of warnings that it’s not very accurate.

When Sharron Angle came out of the Republican primary in Nevada, oddly enough she was vulnerable. She got no unity bounce, instead taking a stream of attacks from Republicans nationwide. As a result, Harry Reid went on the air for the knockout.

He didn’t get it. Even the new Mason Dixon/LVRJ poll has stabilized.

Previous polling has shown Republican Chris Dudley to be in good shape in the Oregon race for Governor, so I’ve wondered if Democrat Ron Wyden would show weakness in his re-election campaign in the state.

Rasmussen’s latest suggests it is not the case, as Wyden is ahead more than comfortably right now.

Franklin & Marshall College is back with a new poll of the Pennsylvania races, file courtesy of Real Clear Politics, but I don’t trust the results.

It’s not just that the result seem to shade a bit more to the Republicans than I’m used to seeing, though. It’s that the numbers overall are just so low that it has me wondering.

Rasmussen Reports has two new polls out: one on the race for Governor between Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman, and the other on the Senate race between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina.

I don’t think the results they show are compatible. If one is right, I think the other is wrong.

The new Rasmussen Reports poll of Missouri suggests that with the clarity brought by the primaries, support is coalescing around Roy Blunt, and he appears to be running away from Robin Carnahan in the Senate race.

To think I once considered this seat a toss up, too.

So 538 moved to the New York Times this morning and in the process made Marco Rubio the favorite finally.

But seriously, my issue with Nate Silver today comes from the old site and specifically, his primary night commentary.

Now that the unpleasantness of the Research 2000 polling is fading from memory, and the Public Policy Polling deal is churning out results, it looks like Daily Kos is again trying to be a hub of political polling. The republishing of the Chris Bowers Senate projections would seem to be part of that.

His methodology has some strong points that I could be in favor of, so I thought I’d give it an in depth look and compare his latest numbers with my own Senate projection based on polling.

Despite a rash of independents and party switches in Florida, tomorrow there are still two meaningful primaries at the top of the ticket. For the Democrats, tomorrow they choose between Bill Clinton-backed Kendrick Meek, and wealthy challenger Jeff Greene for a Senate candidate. Republicans have to decide on a candidate for Governor between former Impeachment star Bill McCollum and wealthy challenger Rick Scott.

With one day to go, let’s check where the polls say both races are headed.

In the Washington Senate primary, those candidates with an expressed preference for Democrats combined for 48.7% of the vote, with Patty Murray leading at 46.4%. Those candidates preferring Republicans combined for 49.7%, with Dino Rossi on top at 33.3%.

And yet, looking at SurveyUSA’s poll, Republicans are coming out of the primary energized and unified, Democrats are depressed, and Independents are ready to try someone new.