Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

PPP: Miller, Murkowski both lead general

Public Policy Polling jumped out ahead to poll the Alaska Senate race even as Republican Lisa Murkowski tries to drag out her primary defeat at the hands of Joe Miller. PPP also checked up on what might happen if Murkowski somehow were able to dislodge the Libertarian nominee and take that party’s line on the ballot in November.

I didn’t have this poll in my hands when I projected Miller at 99%, down from my 99.9% projection for Murkowski. It looks like I was awfully close though, even before Republicans have a chance to unite after the primary, because PPP has Miller ahead of Democrat Scott McAdams 47-39 (MoE 2.7), as that very low MoE results in my only giving McAdams a 7% chance of being ahead per this poll.

PPP also has Murkowski ahead of McAdams 60-28, and Miller ahead of the hypothetical three way race Miller 38-Murkowski 34-McAdams 22. In no scenario does the Democrat lead, and he comes in last in the three way.

Alaska is full of characters, though: PPP has “Independent/Other” party ID on top at 42% to 38% Republican and 20% Democrat.

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