Unlikely Voter

Before we look at some of today’s primary races, here’s Rasmussen’s from a few days back on the Missouri Senate race.

John McCain barely won the state from Barack Obama, and apparently the Senate race is just as close.

Rasmussen has a new generic ballot out, and that means it’s time to see how the Swingometer projects the election to go based on that result.

I’ve been focused on governors lately, so here’s another one of those races. It’s another Rasmussen carpet bomb, this time in Connecticut. Two Democrats, two Republicans, four sets of numbers to chew on.

Rasmussen has carpet bombed the Rhode Island race for Governor, producing a breathtaking array of numbers to look at.

I’ll do my best to make sense of it all, even if a carpet bombed three way race is about my worst case scenario for clarity.

Rasmussen Reports came out with its generic ballot today, too. Having already explained in depth how I did Gallup’s, I’ll analyze the consequences of Rasmussen’s numbers in brief.

Some have expected Republican Randal Paul to fall in the polls against Democrat Jack Conway since accusations emerged that he would have opposed the original Civil Rights Act. SurveyUSA’s poll for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS seems to confirm that expectation.

Good evening. Yes this is a late post and I apologize, but Here’s the latest Rasmussen on the Oregon Governor’s race.

Are we tired of Pennsylvania yet? Of course not! Specifically we now check in on the Governor’s race. Rasmussen has released the first poll since the primary, but I will compare that with the last pre-primary Quinnipiac poll anyway. Tom Corbett and Dan Onorato were obvious likely nominees.

I believe we have as much to learn about Rasmussen’s distinctive modeling as we do about the race itself.

Research 2000 very much wants you to know that they do polls for newspapers in St. Louis, Lexington, Fort Wayne, South Bend, and Reno. They don’t want you to think of them primarily as doing polls for left-wing activist outlets Daily Kos and now Democracy for America, the group founded to continue the work of former Presidential candidate Howard Dean.

Someone should tell Daily Kos and Nate Silver this though, as they beat the wardrums against R2k competitor Rasmussen Reports, that R2k is trying to look less partisan, not more.

Political campaigns announce endorsements all of the time. Most don’t move the needle in big time statewide or national elections.

But in the race for the Republican nomination for Governor of South Carolina, one endorsement seems to have made all the difference.

In the North Carolina Senate race we already saw that Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling are showing markedly different figures.

It looks like we’re going to see the same contrast in the Colorado Senate race, as Rasmussen showed Republicans doing well while PPP shows Democrats ahead.

Charlie Crist gave up the opportunity to run for re-election as Florida Governor to run for Senate, but instead got run out of the Republican primary and has since left the party entirely. I wonder what might have been had he just run for Governor instead.

Instead though, Republicans Bill McCollum and Rick Scott are fighting to challenge Democrat Alex Sink in November. Rasmussen polled these matchups.

Per Real Clear Politics there were six pollsters who took on the Pennsylvania primary, which Joe Sestak won handily by 8, 54-46 over Arlen Specter.

Let’s see who got it right, and also give credit to a particular pollster where it is due.