Unlikely Voter

There was a time when I thought about Nikki Haley’s campaign for governor every day. I’d scramble to find whatever polling I could get my hands on and read the news to try to explain any trends I might be seeing in the polls.

Now, though, the South Carolina Governor’s race joins that of Republican Brian Sandoval’s in Nevada as non-competitive barring a major event (or for Haley, another dirty trick).

After an exciting and unpredictable (thought not often in a good way) primary season, it seems that Nikki Haley has reason to relax some.

Not that she can quit campaigning, but a large lead over Vincent Sheheen makes it clear that the earlier nastiness has long been put to bed in South Carolina.

Today we have high profile races in South Carolina, Nevada, California, and Arkansas to look back on and see how well the pollsters’ numbers matched the actual results.

As I’m just one person who lacks the luxury of doing this site full time, I’m not ashamed to work off of Real Clear Politics to make these assessments.

PPP’s latest on the South Carolina Governor’s race doesn’t even cover the Democrats. The assumption must be that Vincent Sheheen has it wrapped up, I suppose.

So, on to the Republican side, where Nikki Haley hopes to win an absolute majority and avoid a runoff.

InsiderAdvantage polled for Statehouse Report the South Carolina primaries for Governor, and while the necessity of a runoff makes the long term future uncertain, the frontrunners in each race are clear: Nikki Haley and Vincent Sheheen.

Having attended a speech of Nikki Haley’s in Atlanta last year, her run for Governor of South Carolina is one I’ve followed. Living here, I’ve also watched the California Senate race. Both situations seemed to be stable: Haley was stuck in fourth, while in California Tom Campbell was staying ahead of second place Carly Fiorina.

Then Sarah Palin intervened, and both Haley and Fiorina shot into first place in new polls. Now we have confirmation of both events. Sarah Palin carries respect in the Republican Party.

Two polls on the California Senate Republican primary caught my attention today. I’ve been holding off posting on this race with my poll analysis hat on, because I wasn’t sure I could trust myself to be even handed enough.

But these two polls, coming as they are 15 days before election day, are interesting enough that I have to try. They could hardly be more different.

Political campaigns announce endorsements all of the time. Most don’t move the needle in big time statewide or national elections.

But in the race for the Republican nomination for Governor of South Carolina, one endorsement seems to have made all the difference.