Unlikely Voter

After the primary in Nevada, there was no doubt that Democrat Harry Reid had taken a real lead over Republican Sharron Angle, not when he led six polls in a row, and 10 of 12.

Sharron Angle has now matched that run: She’s won 10 of 12 polls, including the last six.

There was a time when I thought about Nikki Haley’s campaign for governor every day. I’d scramble to find whatever polling I could get my hands on and read the news to try to explain any trends I might be seeing in the polls.

Now, though, the South Carolina Governor’s race joins that of Republican Brian Sandoval’s in Nevada as non-competitive barring a major event (or for Haley, another dirty trick).

When Sharron Angle came out of the Republican primary in Nevada, oddly enough she was vulnerable. She got no unity bounce, instead taking a stream of attacks from Republicans nationwide. As a result, Harry Reid went on the air for the knockout.

He didn’t get it. Even the new Mason Dixon/LVRJ poll has stabilized.

I may suspect that Mason-Dixon’s polls for the Las Vegas Review-Journal undercount Sharron Angle’s supporters, but I’m not about to dismiss them completely. So when they show a close race in Nevada’s third Congressional District, it’s definitely worth a look.

In the runup to the Nevada GOP primary, Mason-Dixon and the Las Vegas Review-Journal understated Sharron Angle’s support by 8 points, and cut her 14 point win almost in half to 8.

Now the pair releases their first post-primary poll. Are they gauging Angle’s support accurately this time?

Republicans think they can knock off another majority leader in Harry Reid. Erick Erickson thinks Danny Tarkanian is the best man to put in that seat. Are Nevada Republicans following along?

I don’t really think any of the newest polls I’m finding are particularly interesting, so I’ll just mention them all quickly and move on to something that hopefully is interesting.