Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ Kentucky ’

Poll Survey for February 13

By on February 13, 2014

This is a new feature I’m going to start here at Unlikely Voter. When I see a few polls that aren’t really a whole post in themselves, I’ll throw a post out wrapping them all up into one post.

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One of the first posts I ever made at UnlikelyVoter charted Marco Rubio’s steady rise against Charlie Crist in his Senate primary.

Matt Bevin is not following that pattern against Mitch McConnell.

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The last SurveyUSA poll of the Kentucky Senate race showed Republican Randal Paul running away with it from Democrat Jack Conway. However the new one tells a completely different story in its top line.

When two polls by the same firm of the same race differ by that much, there has to be a story behind the story. Fortunately SurveyUSA’s detailed public reports make it easy to dig in and find what that story is.

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No progress for Jack Conway

By on September 15, 2010

The last time Public Policy Polling hit the Kentucky Senate race, Republican Randal Paul had squandered a huge lead. Democrat Jack Conway had pulled within 7 in the Rasmussen poll back at the end of June, and he was even tied in the PPP poll of Registered Voters.

PPP (this time for Daily Kos) is polling Likely Voters now, and it’s not good news for Conway.

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Opinion Research polled California, Florida, and Kentucky for CNN and Time. The results seem off from those of other recent polls. Let’s find out why.

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SurveyUSA is no fly-by-night operation in polling. They’ve been around a while, they have a reputation, and a great many newspapers seem use them to poll local House races.

So we can’t dismiss their continuing series of polls which look very good for Republicans, including this new Kentucky Senate poll for the Louisville Courier-Journal with Republican Randal Paul seeming to overwhelm Democrat Jack Conway.

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I try my best to avoid various forms of bias in my polling analysis on this site, but some polls just look so ridiculous to me that I throw out any fears of confirmation bias and just go in with the plan of tearing the poll apart.

This Braun Research poll for cn|2 of the Kentucky Senate race is one of those polls.

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Battleground Senate Poll

By on August 11, 2010

In an open and credited aping of the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner House battleground polls, Public Opinion Strategies has conducted a massive Senate battleground poll.

Politico has for us the summary and 150 pages of gory, numerical details. I’m going to see what sense I can make of it.

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Paul still under 50

By on July 22, 2010

Randal Paul never has fully recovered from his initial unforced errors after winning the primary. Which is why Rasmussen Reports, which once showed him up 25 points, has him still lingering under 50 now, though still leading.

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Jim Geraghty points out a possible issue with PPP’s polling in Kentucky: PPP has Democrats taking a greater share of the 2010 electorate than the exit polls gave them in 2008.

That strikes me as most unlikely. Democrats were remarkably motivated in 2008, but it is Republicans who enjoy that status today. So I’m inclined to discount PPP’s result of a tie in Kentucky.