Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Matt Bevin is not following the Marco Rubio pattern

One of the first posts I ever made at UnlikelyVoter charted Marco Rubio’s steady rise against Charlie Crist in his Senate primary.

Matt Bevin is not following that pattern against Mitch McConnell.

It is true that Rubio started off a huge underdog against then-Governor Crist, but he started early. The leads McConnell has, with steady results in the 50s, versus Bevin’s results over 20 points behind, are similar to leads Crist had. However Crist had those leads in the fall of 2009. By the time February 2010 came around, Rubio was the one with a 20 point lead. Rubio had steadily grown from 4% in January 2009, to 20%, to 30, to 40, and finally to 60% in the polls by March 2010.

When Rubio was as far behind as Bevin is now, he had a full year to catch up. Bevin has three months until the May 20th primary. Twelve weeks is a lot of time in politics for things to change, but it’s clear to me that Bevin must see some news in his favor for this race to see any result he wants.

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