By request, I’ve decided to take a look at just what kind of electorate the Public Policy Polling screening of Likely Voters seems to be predicting. To do this I will use recent PPP polls from two states: California, which went for Barack Obama heavily, and West Virginia, where Obama’s popularity has never been that hot.
[More]Posts Tagged ‘ John Raese ’
Examining the PPP Likely Voter screen
By Neil Stevens on October 27, 2010
On the new West Virginia polls
By Neil Stevens on October 15, 2010
Since Democrat Joe Manchin, West Virginia Governor and Senate candidate, literally shot a copy of the “Cap and Trade” bill that DC Democrats tend to support, it’s been clear that Republican John Raese’s easy days of running against Barack Obama were going to get harder.
But the new Orion Strategies poll for Marshall University of the race just isn’t credible.
[More]My list of the four closest Senate races
By Neil Stevens on October 12, 2010
Later today I will find out what my Senate projection says are the four closest Senate races are, but for now, here are what I think those four currently are, and the latest polling on each:
Illinois between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk, Nevada between Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry Reid, Washington between Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi, and West Virginia between Republican John Raese and Democrat Joe Manchin.
[More]A metric ton of new polling today
By Neil Stevens on October 6, 2010
Good evening. We have a great deal of new polling that’s flooded in. Much of it is interesting too, so rather than pick and choose which polls I’ll cover in depth and which I will omit, instead I’ll give a quick look at all the good ones.
We’ve got Senate races in Nevada, Connecticut, West Virginia, Ohio, New York, Missouri, and Delaware, plus races for Governor in Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Hawaii, and Florida. I told you it was a lot.
[More]Raese now leads both West Virginia Polls
By Neil Stevens on September 28, 2010
Some states get seven or eight polls of their Senate races. West Virginia has had two: Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports. And honestly it seems that we were lucky to get PPP to jump in there.
But now that Rasmussen’s latest is out, it’s official: Republican John Raese leads all the current polling over Democrat Joe Manchin.
[More]Raese takes a lead in West Virginia
By Neil Stevens on September 21, 2010
I was going nuts watching West Virginia get almost no polling, even as Rasmussen Reports repeatedly showed the race close. Well I need not pull my hair out any longer, as Public Policy Polling hit the race.
And once again, the theory of a Rasmussen “House Effect” for Republicans is called into question.
[More]West Virginia creeping toward a tie
By Neil Stevens on September 9, 2010
I’ve asked Public Policy Polling on Twitter to please poll the West Virginia Senate race, but until someone else acts we’re stuck with just Rasmussen.
But at least we have a new Rasmussen out, marking the third straight gain for Republican John Raese over Democrat Joe Manchin.
[More]Surprise movement in West Virginia
By Neil Stevens on August 31, 2010
I know the whole world has discussed this poll to death already, but I think it deserves mentioning. In fact I would have yesterday but Gallup got in the way.
But here it is: Rasmussen suddenly shows Republican John Raese competitive with Democrat Joe Manchin in the West Virginia Senate race.
[More]