Unlikely Voter

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I clearly remember the time when Democrat Richard Blumenthal’s military record became a national story. As surprising to some as the story it self was, it was noteworthy that the polls barely budged at the uproar. Blumenthal maintained massive leads against all the Republican prospects.

My how things have changed in that Connecticut Senate race since Republican Linda McMahon won the nomination.

First we heard that she cut the deficit to below 20. Then it was in the low teens. Then it was single digits. Skepticism remained, including with me, after every new development, though. There’s competitive, and there’s close.

But Quinnipiac’s new poll shows the race as obviously competitive and in fact getting truly close. Blumenthal 49, McMahon 46 (MoE 3) shows up in my math as a 70/30 split. That’s not a toss-up, but a tiny bit of noise in the next poll, one point shifted here and there, would get it there.

Candidates matter, but I can’t help thinking it’s only in a wave year that a candidate could go from 41 down in the January Quinnipiac to 3 down in the September edition. Name recognition matters and so do primary victories, that’s all true, but Blumenthal had 60% support at that point. He’s lost a sixth of that this year. That’s more than McMahon’s growing name ID at work. That’s real movement.