Unlikely Voter

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A flood of new polls about New York Senate races came out today. Chuck Schumer still looks safe, but the polling is variable on the special election between Republican Joe DioGuardi and Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand.

We’re now beyond the idea that only one poll, one time showed the special election to be competitive. Polls showing a Gillibrand blowout are now the minority.

Yes, the new Siena poll looks like a poll from before t e primary, what with its 57-31 (MoE 3.5) advantage for Gillibrand, but that’s the only poll showing a gap like that now.

Quinnipiac’s result is closer to Rasmussen, and in fact is a bit better for DioGuardi, as it’s only a six point gap: 48-42 (MoE 3.6). Instead of yesterday’s 87/13 split in favor of Gillibrand we got from Rasmussen, this poll I show as a flat 80/20.

But that’s not the good poll of this round for the Republicans. That poll comes from SurveyUSA. Swallow what you’re drinking, because this result is absolutely, totally, and in all other ways inconceivable: Gillibrand 45, DioGuardi 44, MoE 4.2.

That’s right, SurveyUSA shows a one point gap. A 55/45 race. It will be interesting to see how all of this averages out in my next Senate projection on Monday.