Unlikely Voter

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With Christine O’Donnell’s victory tonight in the Republican Senate Primary, my last Senate projection’s hedge of a 50% Republican victory chance is obsolete. O’Donnell is the winner, and now I’m looking at how that number would look with the straight up matchup of her against Democrat Chris Coons.

Of course I’m most interested in seeing polls taken after the primary, but using the 9/2 Rasmussen Reports poll and the 8/8 Public Policy Polling result, I currently have Delaware at a 10% Republican victory chance, a drop of 85% from two weeks ago, but probably much higher than many analysts are giving O’Donnell credit for.

It remains to be seen which candidate, if any, will benefit from any post-primary bounces, though. Coons could put it away, O’Donnell could make this race close, or something in between. We can only watch, and wait.