Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Missouri Senate race also opens up

In my estimation, Missouri Republicans have underperformed. The state doesn’t strike me as especially friendly to Democrats, and failed to swing for Obama, but Republicans there ought to do better than they have.

I think Roy Blunt may be opening the kind of lead I expect in that state, after months of concern and close polling.

Much like my views on the Ohio race, I’m not counting Robin Carnahan out. Not yet, anyway. But per RCP PPP’s last showed Blunt +4, Mason Dixon’s last showed Blunt +6, and now Rasmussen has Blunt at 50, 7 points ahead of Carnahan at 43 (MoE 4, not 4.5).

A larger lead, a smaller Margin of Error, and a budding majority are all great news for Roy Blunt. I expect this kind of Republican consolidation to make a difference in my next Senate projection.

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One Response to “Missouri Senate race also opens up”

  1. First off, PPP is Markos’s new polling firm so that 41 for Carnahan (D) is likely correct — 1) expect it to be reported as high as possible and 2) it also fits inside the error the 42 and 43 the other pollsters found.

    But for related reasons, PPP is probably pegging Blunt at the low end of his likely number. Otherwise, PPP is trying to sell us that Undecideds are 14%, which is pretty high for two well-known candidates in August. (By comparison, the other two polls are reporting Undecided at 10% or less). My guess is that Undecideds are likely 10% max and consequently the real number for Blunt is actually higher, closer to 48.

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