In my estimation, Missouri Republicans have underperformed. The state doesn’t strike me as especially friendly to Democrats, and failed to swing for Obama, but Republicans there ought to do better than they have.
I think Roy Blunt may be opening the kind of lead I expect in that state, after months of concern and close polling.
Much like my views on the Ohio race, I’m not counting Robin Carnahan out. Not yet, anyway. But per RCP PPP’s last showed Blunt +4, Mason Dixon’s last showed Blunt +6, and now Rasmussen has Blunt at 50, 7 points ahead of Carnahan at 43 (MoE 4, not 4.5).
A larger lead, a smaller Margin of Error, and a budding majority are all great news for Roy Blunt. I expect this kind of Republican consolidation to make a difference in my next Senate projection.