Unlikely Voter

Rasmussen Reports has a new Nevada Senate poll out, and the results are looking terrible for Harry Reid. The Democrat is looking likely to be the second consecutive incumbent floor leader for his party to be voted out of office.

Conventional wisdom says incumbents below 50 are vulnerable. Well, two of the three Republicans running to replace him are now above 50, and the third is at 49.

USC and the LA Times polled some of the major California statewide races. The results, provided by pollsters Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint, seem generally in line with what we’ve seen so far: Campbell and Fiorina are in a close primary race, lagged by DeVore. Boxer can’t reach 50. Whitman cruises in the primary.

The big news to my eye is that Jerry Brown has fallen behind.

Rasmussen Reports has a new one on the Ohio Governor’s race. Kasich 46, Strickland 45, MoE 4.5. 54% chance Kasich is ahead according to my model, down from the 80s a couple of weeks ago.

This is more consistent with the previous trend and seems to confirm the RealClearPolitics theory that Quinnipiac has a few points of bias toward the Democrats in Ohio polling.

In looking at recent polling, I said I needed more data before I could write off Quinnipiac’s results as meaningless. Real Clear Politics has much more data to look at than I have, thanks to having been doing this for much longer, and they see a trend in Quinnipiac’s Ohio polling that leans toward the Democrats in every race in that state.

Food for thought, to be sure.