Unlikely Voter

For those who doubt or may have forgotten the difference between Registered Voter and Likely Voter polling for some polls, here’s a chart of every CNN/Opinion Research Generic Ballot poll from 2010, showing Republican lead or deficit per poll, with the RV and LV polls separated.

Clear difference, I’d say.

We were spoiled by the New Hampshire and South Carolina polling. Those states weren’t stagnant in voter opinion, but they at least moved at reasonable speeds, and allowed for a clear understanding of what was going on.

Florida is different. After swinging 20 points to Newt Gingrich, has now gone 10-15 points right back to Mitt Romney.

InsiderAdvantage polled South Carolina just a few days ago on the 15th, and Mitt Romney had a 32-21 lead on Newt Gingrich.

NewsMax had them poll again on the 18th, and the results were different. Gingrich takes his first SC poll lead in a month.

Rick Santorum. Now? Seriously? This is ridiculous. How are prognosticators supposed to do our jobs if we get a break so late it makes Mike Huckabee look like an early frontrunner? Seriously, Iowa, simmer down now.

All I know is Ron Paul isn’t winning. Beyond that, anything’s possible.

Once Newt Gingrich finally gained some genuine attention after months of praise of his debate performances, the Republican presidential race became a mess. We didn’t know who was leading. It could have been Gingrich, Mitt Romney, or Herman Cain.

For now though it’s settled: Newt Gingrich leads. And as I’ve said in the past, watch his favorability ratings to know whether it’ll last.

Chaos: Mathematically, we see it when small changes to the inputs of a function produce large, wild changes to the outputs. I believe we’re seeing that now in the GOP primary race, as a weakened Herman Cain and a strengthened Newt Gingrich, combined with a steady Mitt Romney and a resilient Rick Perry, turn it into a four cornered brawl.

CNN polled the results of its debate, and of course the results had to come out just after I published my latest national polling survey.

Fortunately it changes nothing I said, though. Herman Cain seems to have missed an opportunity to extend a lead, and instead has fallen back close with Mitt Romney.

A couple of debates ago we looked at where the Republican Presidential primary stood nationally. Since then we’ve seen Mitt Romney surge, presumably as the anti-Rick Perry candidate.

But will Perry himself tumble after widely criticized debate efforts? Let’s check the new CNN poll.

Last night CNN hosted a key Republican Presidential debate, in which Rick Perry took a variety of attacks. This is critical because going into Rick Perry’s first debate, his favorability ratings were great, and his unfavorables were miniscule compared with the field.

Let’s see where CNN had the state of the race going into last night.

The poll itself is unimportant: CNN asked adults about the Space Shuttle program. But the news comes on the front page of the CNN/ORC International poll: “The sample includes 856 interviews among landline respondents and 153 interviews among cell phone respondents.”

CNN is adapting to the new challenges in polling. Will they do well?