Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ Nevada ’

Battleground Senate Poll

By on August 11, 2010

In an open and credited aping of the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner House battleground polls, Public Opinion Strategies has conducted a massive Senate battleground poll.

Politico has for us the summary and 150 pages of gory, numerical details. I’m going to see what sense I can make of it.

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I may suspect that Mason-Dixon’s polls for the Las Vegas Review-Journal undercount Sharron Angle’s supporters, but I’m not about to dismiss them completely. So when they show a close race in Nevada’s third Congressional District, it’s definitely worth a look.

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In the runup to the Nevada GOP primary, Mason-Dixon and the Las Vegas Review-Journal understated Sharron Angle’s support by 8 points, and cut her 14 point win almost in half to 8.

Now the pair releases their first post-primary poll. Are they gauging Angle’s support accurately this time?

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Congressional Quarterly reports that Patriot Majority, an independent group which backs Democrats and raises money through ActBlue (“The online clearing house for Democratic action”), is circulating a poll they commissioned on the Nevada Senate race.

It has Harry Reid on top 44-40. Sadly though we have no other information on the poll, not even the margin of error, so it’s hard to say any thing about the poll but that I’d love to know the assumptions embedded in it, as were embedded in Joseph Cao’s poll making the rounds.

What seems to be the best poll this cycle for Harry Reid is out from Rasmussen Reports. No, people don’t like him anymore than they have this year, but the poll suggests people are beginning to dislike his opponent, Sharron Angle.

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Sharron Angle polled the “worst” against Harry Reid of the three leading Republicans in the Nevada Senate Primary, but she’s maintaining a lead going into the general election.

I let this one simmer for any unity bounces, so let’s take a look at this new poll.

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Elections in Nevada give the voter the choice to vote for “None of These” candidates listed. Every poll I see of the Illinois Senate race suggests to me that if Illinois put that option on the ballot, None of These would win.

The next bit of evidence for the pile: PPP’s latest poll of the race.

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Today we have high profile races in South Carolina, Nevada, California, and Arkansas to look back on and see how well the pollsters’ numbers matched the actual results.

As I’m just one person who lacks the luxury of doing this site full time, I’m not ashamed to work off of Real Clear Politics to make these assessments.

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I keep saying that multiway races are volatile. When voters are spread out in more directions, the sums are smaller and it’s easier for big changes to happen.

Suffolk University’s latest on the Nevada Senate primary for the Washington Times seems to be another example of this effect. Sue Lowden has gone from first to last, and Sharron Angle now leads.

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Republicans think they can knock off another majority leader in Harry Reid. Erick Erickson thinks Danny Tarkanian is the best man to put in that seat. Are Nevada Republicans following along?

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