Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Today’s the big day in Iowa

I went way out on a limb saying Ron Paul does not win the Iowa caucuses, even when he led a bunch of polls. I still say now that Ron Paul will underperform the polls because the turnout model is unrealistic.

Tonight we find out the truth.

One of two things will happen in Iowa: youthful independents will show up like the polls predicted causing Ron Paul to do very well, or they won’t show up causing me to be vindicated.

Well, something else will happen: We’ll find out the order of finish of Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Perry. That won’t affect New Hampshire, which is Romney’s by a landslide, but the next fight is in South Carolina and that will be affected by Iowa.

Should Gingrich finish third, it’s a triumph of debates. Should Perry finish third, money and organization win out. Should Santorum win third, well, then the one-state guy beats the national contenders. However it happens, it should be interesting to watch.

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