Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Ron Paul is the new Howard Dean

Remember 2004? Insurgent Democrat Howard Dean uses a rash of young people online to raise surprising sums of money and gather incredible “buzz” for his candidacy. And yet he drops to third in Iowa, then second in New Hampshire. He would not go on to California, and Texas, and New York, nor would he take the White House.

Now between the PPP poll I covered earlier, and Insider Advantage, It’s Ron Paul in the Howard Dean spot. He only wins if the youth show up.

The facts: Unknown number of likely caucus goers (note that Insider Advantage calls it a ‘Primary’), unknown MoE, unknown handling of mobile phone users or even if it was a telephone poll. So, we have no facts, actually, do we?

The key: The poll projects 33% of the caucus goers to be ages 45-64 and 26% to be 65 and up. According to the CNN entrance polls, those numbers were actually 46% and 27%. InsiderAdvantage seems to join PPP in predicting an unprecedented surge of young independents.

Ron Paul is now Howard Dean. If the youth show up, he wins. If they don’t, all he’s left with is a bat and a mailing list.

Comments

3 Responses to “Ron Paul is the new Howard Dean”

  1. You know, from reading the coverage on your website some might be led to think you don’t like Dr. Paul

  2. I think Ron Paul could very well win Iowa & come in a strong second in NH … but I think he will run into some big problems in SC & Florida.

    Really the Ron Paul rise & the Gingrich fall are probably great news for Mitt Romney.

    I’ve long predicted that Romney was going to end up winning the nomination entirely be default. Romney will only win the nomination after voters have ruled out all of the other options.

  3. In compiling the results of one poll on top of another poll…doesn’t that blow out the MoE of your analysis?

    Regardless, you’re probably right about him winning if the young ones show up.

Write a Comment

Comments are closed.