Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

One up, one down

By on October 18, 2010

One up, one down

Two races for Governor could be making moves, according to the weekend polling. In Oregon, Democrat John Kitzhaber seems to be surging against Republican Chris Dudley, while in New Mexico, Republican Susana Martinez seems to be reversing the state’s recent trend to run away from Democrat Diane Denish.

In New Mexico, Martinez has now hit a raw double digit lead over Denish for the second time in SurveyUSA’s new poll, going up 54-42 (MoE 3.9). That’s a huge lead, and makes the race a 93/7 split in favor of the Republican.

Combine that new polling with the fact that Denish hasn’t led since the Rasmussen poll on May 25 and I conclude Martinez is running away with the race.

Meanwhile in Oregon, Dudley led from May to September straight, winning every poll but one little outlier at Kitzhaber +1. But now Kitzhaber has led in the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls. It’s only a single point, just 46-45 (MoE 3.9), but a 56/44 split Kitzhaber’s way is progress for him.

One up, one down. The shape of the battleground becomes ever more clear.

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