Unlikely Voter

I’ve been staring slack-jawed so long at Russ Feingold’s surprising difficulties in Wisconsin, that I completely neglected to see that there’s a close race for Governor going on in that state, too.

Wisconsin has long been the state most friendly to progressives in America. Could Republicans win the top two statewide races there, without the benefit of an anomaly like the Paul Wellstone funeral?

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Florida is a large and aggressively contested state. It, of all states, demands the clarity of traditional horserace polling. We have been denied that opportunity yet, though, because the Republicans still need a candidate for Governor and the Democrats still need a candidate for Senate.

Quinnpiac’s poll suggests we may get answers soon, as late entering political novices Rick Scott and Jeff Greene take leads, showing clear daylight between the candidates in each primary.

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I was discussing the Real Clear Politics ratings of the House with Moe Lane on Sunday, so I thought I might as well run some simulations based on those ratings.

In fact I did these twice: once for my usual scale, and once for Moe’s own probabilities for each category.

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Is there a poll you’d like to see analyzed? Is there a race you want me to check for polling? How about an analysis nobody’s published?

Hit the contact form and I’ll be happy to try.