Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Corbett steady as Toomey and Sestak joust

While the Pennsylvania Senate race has lived up to my expectations of volatility (Rasmussen has swing from Pat Toomey +8 to Joe Sestak +4 back to Toomey +6 most recently), the race for Governor has been pretty boring.

No matter how many times this race gets polled, Republican Tom Corbett defies the recent partisan trend of Pennsylvania and consistently leads Democrat Dan Onorato, most recently by 11.

In fact, I cannot find a poll Onorato has led, so even Rasmussen’s biggest skeptics can’t really question this latest 50-39 lead for Corbett (MoE 4.5).

And as long as Corbett keeps winning among independents, and bringing along a fair number of Democrats besides, this race isn’t going to get interesting, either.

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