Unlikely Voter

For months the Cook Political Report has been releasing charts of competitive House races at a rate of about one per week. We’re 16 days into July, though, and the last one to come out was on June 24.

Why is that? Did everyone go on vacation, or is Cook having to re-run every race without Research 2000 polls? I’m not a subscriber, but judging by this Senate update which I’m told is disavowing R2k makes me think.

Just as Ohio and Missouri are the top two Republican Senate seats I would predict could flip, Pennsylvania is a top seat held by Democrats I could easily see fall the other way*.

So when Quinnipiac says Joe Sestak tied Pat Toomey again, I’m not surprised a second.

In the runup to the Nevada GOP primary, Mason-Dixon and the Las Vegas Review-Journal understated Sharron Angle’s support by 8 points, and cut her 14 point win almost in half to 8.

Now the pair releases their first post-primary poll. Are they gauging Angle’s support accurately this time?

Candidates matter, and while Dave Westlake polled way behind Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, it looks like Ron Johnson has a real shot against Russ Feingold.

In my estimation, the Republicans stand only a few competitive seats away from having a real shot at the Senate majority, so news like this is significant.