Unlikely Voter

It looks like the McCain/Hayworth primary in Arizona is basically over, as the Rocky Mountain Poll conducted by the Behavior Research Center a big lead and a big swing from earlier in the cycle.

Congressional Quarterly reports that Patriot Majority, an independent group which backs Democrats and raises money through ActBlue (“The online clearing house for Democratic action”), is circulating a poll they commissioned on the Nevada Senate race.

It has Harry Reid on top 44-40. Sadly though we have no other information on the poll, not even the margin of error, so it’s hard to say any thing about the poll but that I’d love to know the assumptions embedded in it, as were embedded in Joseph Cao’s poll making the rounds.

Certain critics either say or imply that Rasmussen Reports is skewed toward Republicans, just because this cycle he predicted early that the 2010 electorate would look nothing like that of 2008.

But that’s not the same as having a partisan bias, and in fact, comparing the latest Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race with SurveyUSA hints there is no such partisan bias to be found.

Plug -2.8 into the Swingometer and you’ll see 5 districts swing. Louisiana’s second district was the fifth closest seat won by a Republican in 2008, and that Republican was Joseph Cao. He beat William Jefferson, the now-convicted felon who received bribes and kept the cash hidden in his freezer.

By election day Jefferson had already been caught, and the money had already been found. Why was the election so close? Incumbency matters.