Back in May, I pondered the voter modeling implications of Pennsylvania Governor’s race, noting just how differently Quinnipiac showed the race from some other pollster.
It’s now July though, and Quinnipiac shows effectively no change from back then.
In May, Quinnipiac had Tom Corbett leading Dan Onorato 43-37, and now the lead is 44-37 (MoE 2.7). That small error range gives Corbett a hefty 90% lead probability by my calculation. Onorato, the Democrat, just hasn’t gained any ground despite Pennsylvania’s statewide lean to the left in recent years.
There’s lots of time, though. The last thing the Republicans could afford to do is to assume Corbett has the race won. Onorato still has only 69% of Democrats on his side. If he wins more of those, the race swings quickly, despite Corbett’s 44-29 lead among Independents.
If the national political wave is being driven in part by acts of Congress, I wouldn’t expect that effect to matter as much, but there could be a local effect here. By a 55-32 margin Pennsylvania does not want Ed Rendell’s policies as Governor to be continued by the next Governor.
Can Onorato distance himself from his fellow party member? That could be a critical question this race will answer.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
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