Unlikely Voter

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(It’d help if I get the state name right, wouldn’t it?)

Via Real Clear Politics we now turn to this Magellan Strategies poll of the New Mexico Governor’s race. New Mexico is a swingy state, capable of going with either party for Senate, Governor, or President, that swung sharply against Republicans in recent years.

But right now the race for Governor is nearly even.

Magellan shows Republican Susana Martinez so slightly ahead of Democrat Diane Denish 44-43 (MoE 4.2), resulting in the smallest lead probability gap I’ve seen in a poll since I started this site: 54/46.

I often like to look at how well the PPACA polls in a state, but Magellan didn’t ask, unfortunately, so I don’t know if that’s helping drive an apparent Republican comeback in the state. I have my suspicions, though.